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 304 
 WTNT41 KNHC 290248
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
  
 ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ALEX CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
 RAGGED-LOOKING...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE
 THAT THE STORM IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.  PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
 WINDS WERE 68 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED WINDS WERE 53 KT. 
 AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOWED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
 HAS DROPPED TO 985 MB...A RATHER LOW VALUE FOR A TROPICAL STORM. 
 BASED ON THE WIND MEASUREMENTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55
 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 CENTER FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
 STORM HAS DRIFTED MOSTLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4.  THIS MOTION IS BELIEVED TO
 BE TEMPORARY BECAUSE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF ALEX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT. 
 THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED ABOUT A HALF DEGREE TO THE
 NORTH DUE TO THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS WELL.  ONE SHOULD NOT
 FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT...HOWEVER...SINCE THE AVERAGE
 TRACK FORECAST ERROR IN THE 48- TO 72-HOUR TIME FRAME IS 100-150
 NAUTICAL MILES.
  
 THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT WAS AFFECTING ALEX HAS ABATED AND THE SHIPS
 MODEL DIAGNOSES A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHEAR...TO BELOW 10 KT IN 24
 HOURS.  AS ALEX MOVES AWAY FROM THE SHELF WATERS NEAR THE NORTHWEST
 COAST OF THE YUCATAN...IT SHOULD PASS OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE
 PROJECTED TRACK IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF A WARM EDDY OVER
 THE SOUTHWEST GULF.  IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT PUZZLING THAT THE GFDL
 AND HWRF MODELS STILL DO NOT FORECAST ALEX TO BECOME A
 HURRICANE...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE CYCLONE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE
 STRENGTH AS WE SPEAK.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
 THE STATISTICAL LGEM GUIDANCE...AND IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE
 PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
  
 GIVEN THE LATEST 36-HR FORECAST POINT AND THE EXTENT OF
 TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FORECAST...IT IS TIME TO UPGRADE
 THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS
 AND NORTHEAST MEXICAN COASTS.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0300Z 21.0N  91.6W    55 KT
  12HR VT     29/1200Z 22.2N  92.3W    65 KT
  24HR VT     30/0000Z 23.6N  93.5W    70 KT
  36HR VT     30/1200Z 24.5N  95.2W    75 KT
  48HR VT     01/0000Z 25.2N  96.9W    80 KT
  72HR VT     02/0000Z 25.7N  99.6W    45 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     03/0000Z 27.0N 102.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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