645 
 WTNT41 KNHC 052034
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT THU AUG 05 2004
  
 THE EYE OF ALEX IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
 CONTINUE TO WARM AS ALEX BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS.  LATEST
 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5/5.5.  USING AN
 AVERAGE OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF
 WEAKENING SYSTEMS YIELDS 90 KT FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. 
 CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
 TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER 17C WATER IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
 
 ALEX CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
 065/39. ALEX REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE
 ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR 12 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
 TOWARD THE EAST.  WHILE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS UNUSUALLY
 WELL-CLUSTERED...THE MODELS APPEAR TO ALREADY BE BEHIND THE CYCLONE
 AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICAL
 MODEL GUIDANCE.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/2100Z 43.6N  52.8W    90 KT
  12HR VT     06/0600Z 45.8N  45.7W    75 KT
  24HR VT     06/1800Z 47.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     07/0600Z 47.0N  25.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED INTO EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
  
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