831 
 WTNT41 KNHC 012031
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004
  
 THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION EARLY THIS
 AFTERNOON FOUND 41 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AT A FLIGHT
 LEVEL OF 1000 FT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO ABOUT 33 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
 CREW ALSO ESTIMATED THE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TO BE 35 KT. ON
 THIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT
 18Z. FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING
 LITTLE AND LIES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE
 ARE OTHER SIGNS THAT THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE IS IMPROVING...WITH A
 CIRCULATION THAT APPEARS TO BE LESS ELONGATED THAN IT WAS EARLIER
 IN THE DAY...MULTIPLE SWIRLS NOTWITHSTANDING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT
 OF A LITTLE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS
 LATTER TREND IS LIKELY THE PRECURSOR TO A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
 UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS ALEX COMES UNDERNEATH
 SOME ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BEFORE THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ARRIVE. 
 CONSEQUENTLY...SOME STRENGTHENING APPEARS IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE...
 BRINGING ALEX TO NEAR 60 KT IN 36 HOURS.  AS THE UPPER FLOW
 CHANGES...ALEX WILL LIKELY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE SYMMETRIC IN ITS
 CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND WIND FIELD.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN SOON...BUT THE
 MODELS WILL PROBABLY UNDERESTIMATE THE DRAG OF THE CURRENT
 CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY.  DUE TO THE STATIONARY MOTION TODAY...THERE
 IS MORE TIME FOR ALEX TO BE CAUGHT UP IN THE APPROACHING
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
 NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND TOWARD THE
 CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  NEVERTHELESS...THE CENTER IS
 STILL EXPECTED TO COME VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE. 
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/2100Z 31.7N  79.2W    35 KT
  12HR VT     02/0600Z 32.4N  78.9W    40 KT
  24HR VT     02/1800Z 33.5N  77.8W    45 KT
  36HR VT     03/0600Z 34.7N  75.7W    45 KT
  48HR VT     03/1800Z 36.5N  72.5W    45 KT
  72HR VT     04/1800Z 41.0N  64.0W    45 KT
  96HR VT     05/1800Z 46.0N  52.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     06/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
  
 $$