489 
 WTNT21 KNHC 312031
 TCMAT1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012004
 2100Z SAT JUL 31 2004
  
 AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
 EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...
 INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
 TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE
 NEXT 36 HOURS.
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  78.6W AT 31/2100Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  78.6W AT 31/2100Z
 AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N  78.3W
  
 FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 31.5N  79.3W
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
 FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.9N  79.2W
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 34.0N  78.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 35.2N  76.6W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW   0NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.5N  73.5W...OVER WATER
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW   0NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 40.0N  69.0W
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 46.0N  57.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N  78.6W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
  
 $$