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 720 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 100846
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number  19
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 10 2018
 
 After being devoid of thunderstorms for some time, a burst of
 deep convection developed over the northern semicircle of Aletta.
 This has probably made the weakening of the cyclone a little less
 rapid than had been occurring over the last day or so.  The current
 intensity estimate is down to 45 kt based on a blend of subjective
 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along with objective Dvorak
 estimates from UW-CIMSS.  In spite of the recent increase of
 thunderstorm activity, which is thought to be temporary, strong
 shear and marginal SSTs are likely to cause continued weakening and
 Aletta is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in a day or so.
 This is consistent with the intensity model consensus.
 
 The system continues to move slowly westward, or around 280/5 kt.
 A weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Aletta should
 maintain this general motion for a few days.  Later in the period,
 steering currents are forecast to become very weak, and little
 motion is indicated at days 4 and 5.  By that time, however,
 Aletta should be a very weak post-tropical cyclone.  The official
 forecast is similar to the previous one and on the southern side of
 the track model guidance suite.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/0900Z 16.0N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  10/1800Z 16.1N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  11/0600Z 16.1N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  11/1800Z 16.0N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  12/0600Z 15.9N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  13/0600Z 15.8N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  14/0600Z 15.6N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  15/0600Z 15.4N 121.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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