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 674 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 090837
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number  15
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
 300 AM MDT Sat Jun 09 2018
 
 Aletta's cloud pattern has continued to gradually degrade
 overnight.  The eye is no longer apparent in infrared satellite
 pictures and the overall cloud pattern has become less symmetric
 due to the effects of southerly wind shear.  Recent microwave
 imagery also shows that the southwestern portion of the inner
 core has eroded and most of the convective banding is located
 over the northeastern portion of the circulation. Subjective and
 objective Dvorak T-numbers have decreased and a blend of the
 Final-T and CI-numbers yields an initial intensity estimate of
 95 kt.
 
 Aletta should continue to weaken during the next day or two as the
 vertical wind shear increases and the cyclone moves over gradually
 decreasing sea surface temperatures.  These conditions are expected
 to cause a rapid decrease in intensity during the next 24 to 36 h.
 After that time, Aletta is forecast to move over SSTs below 26
 degrees Celsius and into a less favorable thermodynamic environment,
 which should result in a continued spin down and degeneration
 of the system to a remnant low within 72 hours.  The intensity
 guidance is in fairly good agreement and the NHC intensity forecast
 is close to the ICON consensus.
 
 The initial motion estimate remains 285/5 kt. There has been
 no significant change to the track forecast reasoning since the
 previous advisory.  Aletta should continue to move around the
 southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico
 during the next day or so.  After Aletta weakens and becomes a more
 vertically shallow system, it should turn westward, then
 southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow.  The overall
 guidance envelope has once again shifted southward and the updated
 NHC track forecast has been moved in that direction to be closer to
 the various consensus aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0900Z 16.2N 112.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  09/1800Z 16.6N 113.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  10/0600Z 17.0N 114.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  10/1800Z 17.2N 115.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  11/0600Z 17.2N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  12/0600Z 17.0N 119.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  13/0600Z 16.6N 120.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  14/0600Z 16.0N 121.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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