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 617 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 082032
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number  13
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018
 
 Aletta remains a formidable category 4 hurricane, although there
 has been some weakening of the core convection during the day.  The
 current intensity is held at 120 kt which is a blend of subjective
 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along with objective Dvorak
 values.  After the notable strengthening episode over the last 24
 hours, it appears that the intensity has leveled off.  This is
 also consistent with GOES-16 measurements of increased inner-core
 lightning observed to be occurring to the east of the eastern
 eyewall, which some research suggests corresponds to a halting of
 the intensification process.  Since vertical shear is expected to
 increase in 12 to 24 hours, a weakening trend is forecast to begin
 late tonight or tomorrow. A more rapid weakening will likely
 commence on Sunday as Aletta begins to traverse cooler waters.  The
 official intensity forecast is at the upper bound of the numerical
 guidance.
 
 The hurricane has moved on a more westward course today, and the
 initial motion estimate is now 290/5 kt.  Aletta is moving along
 the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area and
 should continue to do so over the next day or two.  Later in the
 forecast period, the weakening and increasingly shallower cyclone
 should turn westward and south of westward, following the low-level
 tradewind flow.  The official forecast is close to the dynamical
 model consensus TVCE and is somewhat south of the previous NHC
 track.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/2100Z 16.0N 111.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  09/0600Z 16.5N 112.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
  24H  09/1800Z 17.2N 113.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  10/0600Z 17.9N 114.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  10/1800Z 18.3N 115.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  11/1800Z 18.6N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  12/1800Z 18.6N 119.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  13/1800Z 18.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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