506 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 080843
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number  11
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018
 
 Aletta's impressive satellite presentation has not changed much
 since the 6Z special advisory.  Thus the initial wind speed will
 stay 105 kt, which is very similar to a blend of the latest Dvorak
 estimates.  The hurricane has less than a day to strengthen before
 the environment becomes less hospitable, with a notable increase in
 shear and decrease in water temperatures forecast this weekend.
 These conditions will likely cause significant weakening of Aletta
 over the weekend, with rapid weakening predicted by Sunday.  The
 official forecast is similar to the previous one, but has been
 lowered at long range in accordance with the latest guidance.  The
 GFS and ECMWF suggest Aletta will lose deep convection by day 4, so
 the remnant low timing has been moved up to that day.
 
 The hurricane has been moving slowly at about 5 kt during the
 night, with a motion toward the west-northwest or northwest.  As the
 shear increases on Saturday, Aletta should turn a little more to
 the northwest as the deep circulation feels the southwesterly flow
 associated with a broad upper trough over the eastern Pacific.  By
 Monday, the cyclone should turn more to the west-northwest and then
 westward by the end of the forecast due to Aletta becoming a more
 shallow system and being steered by a low-level ridge.  One notable
 outlier is the ECMWF model, which moves Aletta more westward almost
 immediately, resulting in a much farther south track than the other
 models.  This model has had a southward bias for this storm and is
 weighted less it normally would be in this advisory package.  The
 new forecast is close to the previous one, which also put less
 weight on the ECMWF solution, and lies near the evenly weighted
 track consensus TVCE.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0900Z 15.8N 110.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  08/1800Z 16.1N 111.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
  24H  09/0600Z 16.7N 112.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  09/1800Z 17.4N 113.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  10/0600Z 18.2N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  11/0600Z 19.3N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  12/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  13/0600Z 20.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake