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 019 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 080559
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Aletta Special Discussion Number  10
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
 1200 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018
 
 Satellite images indicate that Aletta has continued to rapidly
 intensify, with very deep convection in the eyewall and a warm eye.
 The initial intensity is set to 105 kt, on the low end of a range of
 estimates from 105 kt from CIMSS-SATCON to 115 kt at 0500 UTC from a
 special TAFB Dvorak classification.
 
 This special advisory is being issued to update Aletta's current
 and forecast intensity.  The intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt,
 which is close to a persistence forecast. Afterwards a combination
 of increasing shear and cooling waters should begin to weaken the
 cyclone, and no changes were required to the forecast beyond 24
 hours.
 
 There are no changes to track forecast from the last advisory.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0600Z 15.6N 110.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  08/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
  24H  09/0000Z 16.6N 111.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  09/1200Z 17.2N 112.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  10/0000Z 17.8N 113.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  11/0000Z 19.1N 115.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  12/0000Z 20.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  13/0000Z 20.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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