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 042 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 072034
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number   8
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 07 2018
 
 An eye has become apparent in visible geostationary satellite
 imagery, although the central deep convection is not very symmetric
 on enhanced infrared imagery.  Based on a blend of objective and
 subjective Dvorak T-numbers, the current intensity is estimated to
 be 65 kt, which makes Aletta the first eastern North Pacific
 hurricane of 2018.  Since the system should continue to traverse a
 warm ocean and experience weak vertical shear for the next day or
 two, additional strengthening is forecast.  By Saturday some
 increase in shear is likely, which should cause weakening to
 commence.  The official intensity forecast is at the high end of
 the numerical guidance.
 
 Aletta has been moving somewhat north of the previous track
 projections, and the initial motion is about 300/5 kt.  The main
 factors controlling the steering of the hurricane are a mid-level
 ridge to the northeast and a weakness in the ridge to the northwest
 of Aletta, as well as the future intensity of the cyclone.  There is
 significantly more spread in the track guidance model than is usual
 for an east Pacific tropical cyclone.  The GFS and HWRF, which
 depict a stronger system, have the northernmost tracks.  The ECMWF,
 which does not show that strong of a cyclone in its forecast,
 predicts the southernmost track.  The official forecast lies between
 these options and is close to the corrected consensus guidance.
 This is somewhat north of the previous NHC track.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/2100Z 15.3N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  08/0600Z 15.6N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  08/1800Z 16.1N 111.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  09/0600Z 16.5N 112.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  09/1800Z 17.1N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  10/1800Z 18.7N 114.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  11/1800Z 19.3N 116.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  12/1800Z 19.5N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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