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 197 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 061435
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 06 2018
 
 The cloud pattern of the storm is gradually becoming better
 organized, but most of the deep convection is confined to the
 eastern and southern portions of the circulation.  Cirrus cloud
 motions suggest that the upper-level outflow is slightly restricted
 over the northwest quadrant, but vertical shear is not very strong
 over the system.  Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB
 are unchanged from the previous synoptic time so the current
 intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.  Since Aletta should
 remain over warm waters with modest shear over the next several
 days, strengthening is likely.  The model guidance is not very
 bullish on intensification, however.  Given the apparently
 favorable environment, the official forecast is at the high end of
 the guidance.
 
 Based on a recent GMI microwave image, the center is repositioned a
 little to the north of the previous track.  This gives an
 estimated initial motion of 280/6 kt.  A mid-level ridge extending
 from Mexico into the eastern Pacific should induce a westward or
 slightly north of west motion over the next several days.  The
 latest GFS and its ensemble mean are on the northern side of the
 track guidance envelope and the ECMWF forecast is near the southern
 side.  The official forecast essentially splits the difference and
 lies quite close to the dynamical model consensus, and is not much
 different from the previous NHC track.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/1500Z 14.7N 107.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  07/0000Z 14.8N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  07/1200Z 15.0N 109.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  08/0000Z 15.2N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  08/1200Z 15.4N 111.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  09/1200Z 16.0N 113.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  10/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  11/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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