771 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 182032
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
 200 PM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012
  
 THE CENTER OF ALETTA REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SEVERAL
 CLUSTERS OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE TO 25 KT OF SOUTHERLY
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM
 SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWS A FEW
 25-30 KT VECTORS EAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS AGAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE COMBINATION OF
 CONTINUED SHEAR AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
 IMAGERY SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT
 12-24 HOURS...WITH THE REMNANTS BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER
 DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST IN 48-72 HOURS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/3.  ALETTA REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK
 STEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN
 MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS.  THE DEPRESSION OR ITS
 REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD
 DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE
 PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  18/2100Z 14.4N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  19/0600Z 14.5N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  19/1800Z 14.2N 112.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  20/0600Z 13.6N 112.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  20/1800Z 12.7N 112.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN