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 445 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 172048
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
 200 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
  
 CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN RAGGED BANDS NEAR THE CENTER OF ALETTA
 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOW LONG THIS CONVECTION CAN
 PERSIST IS UNCERTAIN...SINCE ALETTA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 
 20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
 ENTRAINMENT.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS
 SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR
 LESS.  FINAL DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 72-96 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW
 BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.
  
 ALETTA HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/5.  ALETTA IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
 WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
 NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE
 OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD
 DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
 OR SOUTH AS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING
 MECHANISM.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST
 OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  17/2100Z 13.1N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  18/0600Z 13.4N 114.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  18/1800Z 13.8N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  19/0600Z 14.0N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  19/1800Z 13.9N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  20/1800Z 13.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  21/1800Z 12.0N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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