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 937 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 171434
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
 800 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
  
 DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...A NEW BURST OF SHOWERS AND
 THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER
 OF ALETTA.  THE BURST IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSIENT...AS ALETTA IS
 EXPERIENCING 20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR TO THE WEST BEING ENTRAINED INTO
 THE CYCLONE.  BASED ON THIS COMBINATION...ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO
 DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 H OR LESS.  ONE CHANGE FROM THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY IS TO ADD A 96 H POINT...AS THE LATEST DYNAMICAL
 MODEL RUNS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW REMAINING IDENTIFIABLE THROUGH THAT
 TIME.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/4.  ALETTA IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF WEAK
 STEERING CURRENT SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN
 MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE OR ITS
 REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
 48 H...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A LARGER
 DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM.  THE
 NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  17/1500Z 12.1N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  18/0000Z 12.4N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  18/1200Z 12.8N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  19/0000Z 13.3N 114.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  19/1200Z 13.5N 114.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  20/1200Z 13.0N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  21/1200Z 12.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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