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 938 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 171055
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12...CORRECTED
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
 200 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
  
 CORRECTED STATUS AT 96H IN TABLE
 
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED AND ONLY A FEW SMALL CELLS REMAIN
 NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH IN FACT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. A
 RECENT ASCT PASS MEASURED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS ONLY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
 CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN...OR THE LACK
 OF...ALETTA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. DRY
 AIR AND SOUTHERLY SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE
 CYCLONE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING...PERHAPS FASTER THAN
 INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 295/03. GLOBAL
 MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL SOON
 DEVELOP SOUTH OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A NORTHWARD
 MOTION OF THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EASTWARD DRIFT. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  17/0900Z 11.7N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  17/1800Z 12.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  18/0600Z 12.5N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  18/1800Z 13.0N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  19/0600Z 13.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  20/0600Z 13.5N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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