483 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 170231
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
 800 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012
  
 THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON
 SATELLITE IMAGES WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. 
 A STRONG BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER A SMALL
 AREA JUST NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT
 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON DVORAK RULES AND THE ASCAT PASS
 FROM EARLIER TODAY...WHICH INDICATED THAT ALETTA WAS A LITTLE
 STRONGER THAN IT LOOKED.  DRY AIR AND SOUTHERLY SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO
 TAKE THEIR TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ALETTA SHOULD WEAKEN TO
 A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON...AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
 IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
 THE MOST RECENT LGEM RUN AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND
 SPEED FORECAST.
 
 INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD...280/8...FOR THE TIME BEING.  A
 WEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA
 SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
 SO.  AFTERWARDS...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
 SOUTHWEST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IS LIKELY TO CARRY ALETTA...OR ITS
 REMNANT...EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS
 IDENTITY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 ONE AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  17/0300Z 11.5N 114.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  17/1200Z 12.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  18/0000Z 12.6N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  18/1200Z 13.2N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  19/0000Z 13.6N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  20/0000Z 14.0N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  21/0000Z 13.5N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH