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 238 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 161434
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
 800 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012
  
 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF ALETTA DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY
 DIFFERENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR SOME NEW
 CONVECTIVE GROWTH NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. INTERESTINGLY...THE
 CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT SUGGESTIVE
 OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSED BY THE
 SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE THE
 SAME AS EARLIER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. THE
 ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
 UNFAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE CYCLONE IS
 FORECAST TO INGEST A MUCH DRIER...STABLE AIR MASS AND BE AFFECTED
 BY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. THESE NEGATIVE
 FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN RAPID WEAKENING
 OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW INDICATES THAT
 ALETTA WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
  
 THE CENTER OF ALETTA WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT...BUT A 1145
 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH
 THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08...AND
 THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. ALETTA IS
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER 12
 HOURS OR SO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
 AFTER THAT TIME...THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS
 NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AND ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH
 OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
 NORTHEASTWARD OR EVEN EASTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW
 CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF
 THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE
 RIGHT AFTER THAT IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
 AT THOSE TIMES.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/1500Z 11.8N 112.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  17/0000Z 12.1N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  17/1200Z 12.6N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  18/0000Z 13.0N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  18/1200Z 13.5N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
  72H  19/1200Z 14.1N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/1200Z 14.5N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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