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 509 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 160832
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
 200 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
 CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND ON IR IMAGES BUT RECENT MICROWAVE
 DATA SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN AREA
 OF CONVECTION. NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AWAY FROM
 THE ALLEGED CENTER...BUT ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF INCREASING
 ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
 CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING ADVERSE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR
 INCREASES AND DRY AIR APPROACHES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
 GRADUAL WEAKENING...CLOSE TO THE RATE SUGGESTED BY THE LGEM
 GUIDANCE.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE
 IS 285/8. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NEW GUIDANCE
 INSISTS ON A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST BEYOND 36 HOURS
 AS ALETTA BECOMES STEERED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TRACK WAS
 ALREADY INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND IS
 EMPHASIZED IN THIS ONE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT THE CYCLONE
 BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MEANDERS INSTEAD AS IT DEGENERATES
 INTO A REMANT LOW.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/0900Z 11.9N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  16/1800Z 12.0N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  17/0600Z 12.4N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  17/1800Z 12.8N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  18/0600Z 13.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  72H  19/0600Z 14.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/0600Z 15.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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