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 382 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 150831
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
 200 AM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012
  
 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT ALETTA'S CLOUD PATTERN
 HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
 EMBEDDED JUST WITHIN THE COLD CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  UW-CIMSS
 UPPER-LEVEL WV/IR WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT ALETTA IS SITUATED
 JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS CREATING A
 DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  ENHANCED BD-CURVE
 SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS RESIDE IN THIS
 PARTICULAR QUADRANT.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS
 ARE T2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
 AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
 INDICATE ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE
 INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO IMPEDE ANY
 FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
 COMPROMISE OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS...SUGGESTING GRADUAL
 WEAKENING BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD AND DISSIPATION BY DAY 5.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/8...WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLY
 STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE
 NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN MOTION AND
 FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...AS DEPICTED BY
 A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  AFTERWARD...A REDUCTION IN SPEED
 IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STEERING CURRENT WEAKEN IN
 RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
 NORTHWEST.  THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY A REPRODUCTION OF THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
 THE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/0900Z 10.8N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 11.1N 110.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  16/0600Z 11.4N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  16/1800Z 11.6N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  17/0600Z 11.9N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  18/0600Z 12.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  19/0600Z 13.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS
  
 
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