359 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 150233
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
 800 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
 ORGANIZED AS IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW FARTHER EMBEDDED
 WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH
 TAFB AND SAB ARE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING
 UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY.  THERE IS MODEST
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  BASED
 ON THE MODEL PREDICTIONS...ALETTA HAS ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS WITHIN
 WHICH TO INTENSIFY FURTHER BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
 BEGINS TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STORM.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
 IS SIMILAR TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE...AND TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
 FORECAST.  LGEM INDICATES DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD....AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM
 COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN THAT.
 
 BASED ON THE LATEST CENTER FIXES...INCLUDING ONE FROM A RECENT SSMIS
 OVERPASS...ALETTA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER CLIP OR
 280/10.  A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
 THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A
 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS PREDICTIONS...AND IS NOT FAR FROM THE
 PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/0300Z 10.5N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  15/1200Z 10.8N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  16/0000Z 11.1N 112.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  16/1200Z 11.4N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  17/0000Z 11.7N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  18/0000Z 12.0N 119.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  19/0000Z 12.5N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH