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 674 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 271410
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006
 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURROUNDING SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
 PAST 6 HOURS. A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE
 EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TEMPORARILY
 WEAKENED SOMEWHAT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OS 30 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
 SAB...RESPECTIVELY. AT 12Z...SHIP H9UY LOCATED ABOUT 100 NMI
 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED WESTERLY WINDS OF 21 KT AND A
 PRESSURE OF 1006.0 MB.
  
 THE BROAD CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING OR REFORMING
 SLOWLY NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 4 KT CLOSER TO THE
 STRONG CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND ONLY A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
 IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 AFTER THAT...WEAK RIDGING FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
 SYSTEM ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CENTRAL MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
 NUDGE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS...
 LIKE NOGAPS AND THE ECMWF...MOVE THE STORM INTO MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCO
 IN 48-72 HOURS BEFORE TURNING IT SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
 TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO THE CURRENT WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
 SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL AND A BLEND OF
 THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS.
 
 THE CURRENT MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
 WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT BY 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
 GRADUAL SLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY BECOME A
 TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
 BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT FOR A 30- AND 35-KT TROPICAL
 CYCLONE. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO NEAR HURRICANE
 STRENGTH BY 96 HOURS...AND THIS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IF THE
 CENTER REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO.
 
 DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AT
 THIS TIME... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
 WATCH FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/1500Z 15.1N 101.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N 101.2W    35 KT
  24HR VT     28/1200Z 16.0N 101.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     29/0000Z 16.4N 100.9W    45 KT
  48HR VT     29/1200Z 16.7N 101.4W    45 KT
  72HR VT     30/1200Z 16.8N 101.9W    45 KT
  96HR VT     31/1200Z 16.8N 102.5W    45 KT
 120HR VT     01/1200Z 16.8N 103.0W    45 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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