306 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 270943
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006
 300 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH DEEP ORGANIZED
 CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS
 IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM
 BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STRONG
 SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE
 WEST OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT
 ANTICIPATED...ONLY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD BRING THE
 SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.    
 
 THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE AND IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THEREFORE...
 THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO
 DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL
 AND GLOBAL MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...ANY NORTHWARD DRIFT COULD BRING
 GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO. INTERESTS
 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
 DEPRESSION.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/1000Z 14.5N 101.5W    25 KT
  12HR VT     27/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W    30 KT
  24HR VT     28/0600Z 15.0N 101.5W    30 KT
  36HR VT     28/1800Z 15.5N 101.4W    30 KT
  48HR VT     29/0600Z 16.0N 101.5W    30 KT
  72HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N 102.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     31/0600Z 16.5N 102.5W    30 KT
 120HR VT     01/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W    30 KT
  
  
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