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 513 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 041433
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
 800 AM PDT MON JUL 04 2016
 
 Agatha's center is exposed to the southwest of a diminishing area of
 deep convection.  The current intensity is held at 35 kt in
 accordance with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, although this may be
 generous.  A broad upper-level trough to the west of the
 tropical cyclone is imparting about 25 kt of southwesterly shear
 over Agatha.  The dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will
 increase some more and this, along with cooling ocean waters and
 dry air, should cause the cyclone to weaken and degenerate into a
 remnant low by Tuesday.  The official intensity forecast is in good
 agreement with the latest LGEM guidance.
 
 A mainly westward motion, or 280/11 kt, continues while Agatha is
 steered by the flow to the south of a mid-level ridge.  There is no
 significant change to the track forecast.  The weakening and
 increasingly shallow cyclone should continue on a generally westward
 course following the low-level easterlies.  The official track
 forecast is an extension of the previous one and is in good
 agreement with the dynamical model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/1500Z 18.4N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  05/0000Z 18.7N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  05/1200Z 18.9N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  06/0000Z 19.0N 133.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  06/1200Z 18.9N 135.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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