175 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 040233
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 03 2016
 
 Although Agatha still has a tight circulation, the overall
 convective pattern has lost some organization during the last
 several hours.  The initial intensity has been lowered a little to
 35 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT
 estimates from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.  Agatha is
 currently over cool 25 deg C waters and is embedded in a stable air
 mass, as evident by the field of stratocumulus clouds over the
 western half of the circulation. These unfavorable conditions,
 combined with a notable increase in southwesterly shear during the
 next day or so, should cause Agatha to weaken to a remnant low in
 about 36 hours, or perhaps sooner. The remnant low is forecast to
 dissipate in about 4 days.
 
 The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt while
 being steered by a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico.  The
 weakening system is expected to gradually turn westward during the
 next couple of days as it becomes a shallower cyclone and is mainly
 steered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The NHC track forecast is
 nudged a little to the south of the previous one and lies very close
 to the multi-model consensus TVCE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0300Z 18.0N 125.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  04/1200Z 18.4N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  05/0000Z 18.8N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  05/1200Z 18.9N 131.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  06/0000Z 18.8N 133.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  07/0000Z 18.5N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi