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 268 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 030839
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 03 2016
 
 A small burst of cold-topped convection has remained near the
 center of Agatha during the past 6 hours, and earlier microwave
 satellite data indicate that the compact cyclone had developed a
 small mid-level eye feature. Satellite intensity estimates are
 T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, T3.0/45 kt from SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT 3.3/51 kt,
 and 48 kt from a recent AMSU estimate. A blend of these intensity
 values supports increasing the initial intensity to at least 40 kt.
 
 Agatha's initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt based on a 12-hour
 average motion. Latest NHC model guidance remains in good agreement
 on maintaining a strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of
 Agatha for the next several days. This stable steering pattern
 should keep the small cyclone moving in a general west-northwestward
 direction for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the
 west after that. The official NHC track forecast is similar to the
 previous forecast track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE.
 
 Agatha has likely reached its peak intensity, so little change in
 strength is expected today. By tonight and especially on Monday, the
 cyclone will be encountering increasing southwesterly vertical wind
 shear in excess of 20 kt, and will also be moving over sea-surface
 temperatures less than 26C and into a significantly drier air mass.
 These negative factors should cause Agatha to weaken to a remnant
 low by 48-72 hours, and dissipate by day 4.  This official intensity
 forecast is similar to the previous NHC advisory and closely follows
 the intensity consensus model IVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0900Z 17.0N 122.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  03/1800Z 17.7N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  04/0600Z 18.4N 126.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  04/1800Z 18.9N 128.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  05/0600Z 19.1N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  06/0600Z 19.4N 134.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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