390 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 300229
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012010
 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010
  
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
 AGATHA CROSSED THE COAST EARLIER TODAY ABOUT 330 PM PDT...2230
 UTC...IN THE VICINITY OF THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. THE CYCLONE
 DEVELOPED A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AS IT WAS MOVING
 INLAND. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF EL SALVADOR REPORTED STRONG
 GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES ALONG THE COAST EARLIER TODAY WHILE
 DATA FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN GUATEMALA REPORTED RAINFALL
 TOTALS OF UP TO 15 INCHES.  THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS
 FROM THE SURROUNDING STATIONS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
 LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. SINCE AGATHA IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH THE
 HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
 WEAKENING...AND AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.
 
 AGATHA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
 WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY FAVORS A SLOW MOTION
 TOWARD NORTHEAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS
 INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. DESPITE THE EXPECTED
 WEAKENING...THE CYCLONE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
 TORRENTIAL RAINS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
 PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
 SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA... EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS.
 
 ALTHOUGH ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AT THIS
 TIME...A FEW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD STILL OCCUR IN
 SQUALLS PRIMARILY OVER WATER. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0300Z 14.9N  92.0W    30 KT
  12HR VT     30/1200Z 15.5N  91.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     31/0000Z 16.0N  91.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
  36HR VT     31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI