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 059 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 121437
 TCDEP1
  
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2011
  
 ADRIAN IS ESSENTIALLY A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
 EXCEPT FOR A FEW TRANSIENT PUFFS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE ADRIAN
 HAS LARGELY BEEN DEVOID OF CONVECTION FOR A WHILE NOW...IT NO
 LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS BEING DECLARED A
 POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...BASED UPON AN
 EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND THE STILL VIGOROUS APPEARANCE OF THE
 CIRCULATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE
 IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS
 ADRIAN IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...AND GLOBAL
 MODELS FORECAST DISSIPATION WITHIN 24-48 HOURS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10 AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF
 ADRIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATING
 AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A
 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
 SINCE THE MODELS FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT ASSUME A STRONGER SYSTEM
 WHEN ADRIAN IS ALREADY A SHALLOW CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 TRACK REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST
 AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS WHICH WEAKEN ADRIAN
 FASTER.
  
 THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON ADRIAN.  FOR ADDITIONAL
 INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
 ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
 NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/1500Z 16.5N 115.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  12H  13/0000Z 17.1N 116.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  13/1200Z 17.8N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  14/0000Z 18.7N 118.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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