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 341 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 120836
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2011
  
 ADRIAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
 DIMINISHED AROUND 0400 UTC...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW MAINLY
 CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430
 UTC REVEALED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 35 KT...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL
 WEAKENING HAS LIKELY OCCURRED SINCE THAT TIME. THEREFORE...ADRIAN
 HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
 ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER 25 C WATERS AND IS
 FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 THESE COOL WATERS...A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND AN INCREASE IN
 WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE ADRIAN TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
 LATER TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
 REMNANT LOW DISSIPATE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
  
 ADRIAN IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT.  SEVERAL OF THE TRACK
 MODELS INSIST ON TAKING THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANTS...
 NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST OF
 BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW IN
 NATURE...A NORTHWARD TRACK APPEARS UNREASONABLE.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FAR LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN
 BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/0900Z 16.1N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  12/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  13/0600Z 17.2N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  13/1800Z 18.0N 117.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  14/0600Z 19.0N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  
 
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