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 034 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 091433
 TCDEP1
  
 HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
 800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011
  
 ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
 RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
 DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
 SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
 INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
 KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
 SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
  
 THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...OR
 AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION
 BEGINS TO BE AFFECTED BY STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR
 SO. BY THEN...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
  
 A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
 NORTHERN MEXICO HAS EXPANDED AND CONSEQUENTLY...ADRIAN HAS ACQUIRED
 A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285 DEGREES AT
 8 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING
 AND BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS
 STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF
 THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THEN...ADRIAN SHOULD BE
 WEAKER AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE
 LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
 SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND IN FACT...NONE
 OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...TURN THE HURRICANE
 NORTHWARD AS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/1500Z 14.2N 104.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  10/0000Z 14.5N 105.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
  24H  10/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  11/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  11/1200Z 15.8N 109.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  12/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  13/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  14/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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