878 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 072043
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011
  
 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN ORGANIZED PATTERN OF
 DEEP CONVECTION...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND COVERING MUCH OF THE
 WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW
 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ARE THE BASIS FOR A SLIGHTLY
 HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
  
 SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION
 ESTIMATE IS 295/3. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE
 NEXT DAY OR TWO. BEYOND THAT TIME...A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
 WESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
 THROUGH DAY 5.  THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
 NORTHWARD TRACK BIASES AND THUS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN WEIGHTED LESS
 HEAVILY THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS.
  
 THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...
 WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR. THE
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE
 NEXT 4 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO A
 HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A
 HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
 DAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
 GUIDANCE.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/2100Z 11.7N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  08/0600Z 12.2N 100.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  08/1800Z 12.8N 100.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  09/0600Z 13.6N 101.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  09/1800Z 14.5N 102.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  10/1800Z 15.2N 104.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  11/1800Z 16.0N 106.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  12/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI