915 
 WTNT44 KNHC 222302
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  67
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004
  
 AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
 DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
 SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
 CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
 OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
 CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
 THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE 
 AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
 
 ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO 
 GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE
 IMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT
 THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION.  THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS
 FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN
 TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
 THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS
 GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
 CENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS
 AS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
 WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS.
 
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/2300Z 26.9N  89.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     23/0600Z 27.5N  91.2W    40 KT
  24HR VT     23/1800Z 28.5N  93.0W    45 KT
  36HR VT     24/0600Z 30.0N  95.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     24/1800Z 30.5N  95.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  96.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$