638 
 WTPA42 PHFO 282047
 TCDCP2
  
 Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number  58
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 28 2018
 
 The low-cloud center of Lane remained exposed and easy to track
 overnight as it moved slowly west northwest. Thunderstorms persist
 northeast of the center, but the convection has slowly shifted
 farther away. Visible imagery shows the low level center has become
 less tightly wound. Subjective Dvorak estimates came in at 1.5/25 kt
 from HFO SAB, and JTWC, and the latest CIMSS ADT was 1.9/29 kt.
 Although Lane is clearly not a very strong system, a fairly tight
 pressure gradient remains between Lane and a 1035 mb surface high
 far northeast of the depression. I have kept Lane as a 30 kt
 tropical depression for this advisory.
 
 Our forecast reasoning remains the same. The circulation around a
 low aloft near 21N 172W is producing strong southwest vertical wind
 shear over Lane. The CIMSS estimate at 1800 UTC was 47 kt over Lane.
 With convection shearing off to the northeast of Lane, the
 depression will continue to weaken. A north-south low-level trough
 is deepening near 170W and the global models are in good agreement
 showing a new extratropical surface low forming within the trough by
 this evening near 30N 170W.
 
 Lane is forecast to move northwest this afternoon with a turn toward
 the north northwest tonight. That motion is expected to continue as
 Lane weakens to a post-tropical remnant low later today. Whatever
 might be left of Lane is forecast to be absorbed within the 
 extratropical low developing to the north.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/2100Z 19.0N 168.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  29/0600Z 20.0N 168.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  29/1800Z 21.5N 169.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  30/0600Z 24.0N 170.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Donaldson