455 
 WTPA42 PHFO 281454
 TCDCP2
  
 Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number  57
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 500 AM HST Tue Aug 28 2018
  
 Overnight GOES-15 fog product imagery along with a few VIIRS
 images and a Monday evening SCATSAT pass show that the exposed low
 level circulation center (LLCC) of Lane has started tracking
 to the west-northwest, and has become increasingly elongated and
 indistinct during the night. However, for the third night in a
 row, despite very strong vertical wind shear estimated at 57 kt by
 CIMSS, Lane managed to produce a substantial and persistent burst of
 deep convection just to the northeast of the LLCC, which kept the
 system classifiable for this cycle. Subjective Dvorak current
 intensity estimates came in at 1.5/25 kt from HFO and SAB, and
 2.0/30 kt from JTWC, and the latest CIMSS ADT has increased to
 1.9/29 kt in response to the deep convection NE of the center. The
 overnight ASCAT pass sampled only the eastern part of Lane's
 circulation, but did find a small area of 30 kt winds there. We have
 therefore maintained Lane as a 30 kt tropical depression for this
 advisory.
  
 With the anticipated turn toward the northwest now apparently
 underway, the initial motion for this advisory is set at 290/9 kt.
 Lane is now beginning to feel the influence of a strong low aloft
 which water vapor imagery shows centered near 22N 172W. Model
 guidance continues to show Lane being picked up by a developing
 low-level trough induced by the upper trough, with the depression
 expected to turn NW then NNW later today. The new forecast track is
 very similar to the previous track, and remains on the left side of
 the guidance envelope in best agreement with the ECMWF.
  
 Very strong shear is forecast to continue along the forecast track
 of Lane during the next couple of days. The new intensity forecast
 anticipates that Lane will become a remnant low later today as
 the LLCC continues to become less organized, and the current deep
 convection will likely wane as it has during the past couple of
 daytime periods. The remnant low will then be absorbed within 36
 hours into a larger extratropical low forecast to develop farther to
 the north.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/1500Z 18.8N 168.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  29/0000Z 20.0N 169.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  29/1200Z 21.8N 169.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Jacobson