821 
 WTNT44 KNHC 161445
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  57
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004
  
 IVAN IS MOVING 010/12 ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA.  WHILE IT IS
 WEAKENING...A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA INDICATES
 THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IVAN SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT GETS FARTHER
 INLAND...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION BY 24 HR.  THEY SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
 CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HR...ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA
 WILL LIKELY PERSIST THEREAFTER.
 
 DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN
 WILL CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE THROUGH 72 HR. 
 BASED ON THIS...THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CENTER A LITTLE
 FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
 UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE REMAINS OF IVAN WILL GO AFTER 72 HR.
  
 STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY...AND THE
 THREAT OF HIGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS IVAN WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...THE
 CYCLONE REMAINS A MAJOR RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL TODAY. 
 THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
 THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/1500Z 32.0N  87.5W    65 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     17/0000Z 33.6N  86.9W    50 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     17/1200Z 35.2N  85.7W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     18/0000Z 36.5N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     18/1200Z 37.0N  82.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     19/1200Z 37.0N  81.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$