978 
 WTNT24 KNHC 160229
 TCMAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  55
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
 0300Z THU SEP 16 2004
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
 APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
 LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
 THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
 SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
 WEST OF GRAND ISLE.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST
 OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN
 FLORIDA.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  88.1W AT 16/0300Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  10 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  933 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
 64 KT....... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
 50 KT.......125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
 34 KT.......225NE 250SE 125SW 150NW.
 12 FT SEAS..250NE 300SE 350SW 300NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  88.1W AT 16/0300Z
 AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  88.2W
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N  87.9W...INLAND
 MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 64 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  60NW.
 50 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW  75NW.
 34 KT...150NE 250SE 125SW 125NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.0N  87.2W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...125NE 200SE 125SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.5N  86.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
  
 FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.5N  85.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
  
 FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.0N  84.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 36.0N  84.0W...DISSIPATING
 MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N  88.1W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 $$