502 
 WTPA44 PHFO 090845
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  55
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
 1100 PM HST TUE SEP 08 2015
 
 THE COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF
 JIMENA IS EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. THERE
 IS STILL A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
 CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR 45 THOUSAND FEET DISPLACED FAR
 EAST OF THE LLCC. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 1.8/28
 KT. THE CURRENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.5/35 KT
 FROM SAB...AND 2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC AND PHFO. THEREFORE...WE HAVE
 LOWERED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT
 FOR THE CONTINUED DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM...AND TO ALLOW FOR
 GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE LLCC IS 255/08 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS
 WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION...WHICH IS DUE TO STEERING BY DEEP LAYER
 RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING 
 THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AS JIMENA STARTS TO ROUND THE RIDGE...IT WILL 
 GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND TOWARD THE WEST-
 NORTHWEST DURING THE 48-72 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THIS MOTION WILL OCCUR 
 AS JIMENA BEGINS TO MOVE AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP LAYER 
 RIDGING. THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
 DIGGING TOWARD JIMENA WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE 
 NORTHWEST BY DAY 4. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 
 PREVIOUS WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LEFT TO MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW 
 THE LATEST TVCN AND GFEX GUIDANCE.
 
 THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE 
 VICINITY OF JIMENA FROM THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIP GUIDANCE INDICATE IT 
 IS ABOUT 33 KT FROM THE WEST. THIS STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO 
 CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION 
 DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ALLOW JIMENA TO MOVE OVER WARMER 
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OF OCEAN HEAT 
 CONTENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND 
 THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWING SLOW WEAKENING. BASED ON THIS 
 FORECAST...JIMENA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 2 
 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/0900Z 25.7N 155.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  09/1800Z 25.3N 156.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  10/0600Z 25.0N 157.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  10/1800Z 24.9N 159.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  11/0600Z 25.1N 160.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  12/0600Z 26.0N 162.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  13/0600Z 29.6N 164.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON