744 
 WTPA44 PHFO 090234
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 500 PM HST TUE SEP 08 2015
 
 THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY CHANGES WITH JIMENA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS WITH THE CENTER MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A BLOB OF
 CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT VERY
 IMPRESSIVE...AN EARLIER ASCAT-B PASS SURPRISINGLY SHOWED MAXIMUM
 WINDS OF ABOUT 50 KT.  ASSUMING SOME SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX SINCE
 THEN LEADS TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.
 
 MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SHEAR INCREASING TO RATHER HIGH VALUES OVER THE
 NEXT DAY OR SO...LIKELY CAUSING A DECREASE IN STRENGTH.  THE ONE
 CAVEAT IS THAT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS
 AND INTO A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE ALOFT AS WELL...WHICH COULD TEMPER
 THE WEAKENING RATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
 INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWING SLOW
 WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH THE VALUES ARE HIGHER BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
 THE PERSISTENT STRONG SHEAR.
 
 VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
 AND IS MOVING ABOUT 7 KT.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS LIKELY FOR THE
 NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST WHILE THE STORM
 MOVES AROUND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  JIMENA...OR ITS REMNANTS...
 SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND
 ACCELERATE IN A FEW DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH
 SHOULD THEN ABSORB THE LOW BY DAY 5.  OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS
 GUIDANCE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0300Z 26.0N 153.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  09/1200Z 25.7N 155.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  10/0000Z 25.3N 156.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  10/1200Z 25.1N 158.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  11/0000Z 25.1N 159.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  12/0000Z 25.5N 161.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  13/0000Z 28.0N 163.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE