862 
 WTNT24 KNHC 151428
 TCMAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  53
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
 1500Z WED SEP 15 2004
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
 APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
 LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
 THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
 SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
 WEST OF GRAND ISLE.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
 LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
 YANKEETOWN FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
 STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
 NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N  88.0W AT 15/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  11 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  939 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
 64 KT....... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
 50 KT.......150NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
 34 KT.......225NE 250SE 150SW 175NW.
 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 325NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N  88.0W AT 15/1500Z
 AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  87.9W
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.9N  88.2W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 64 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
 50 KT...150NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
 34 KT...225NE 250SE 150SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N  87.9W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 64 KT... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 50 KT... 90NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
 34 KT...125NE 200SE 125SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.8N  87.4W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  70 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.0N  86.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
  
 FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W...DISSIPATING
 MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W...DISSIPATING
 MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N  88.0W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 $$