627 
 WTNT44 KNHC 151427
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004
  
 THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION CONCLUDED AT 12Z...AND THE NEXT
 AIRCRAFT WILL BE ARRIVING MOMENTARILY.  PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF
 127 KT DURING THE LAST PASS SUPPORT ABOUT 115 KT AT THE
 SURFACE...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE 50 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
 BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS.  COMPETING INFLUENCES MAKE
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT.  THE HURRICANE IS NOW PASSING
 OVER A WARM GULF EDDY WHICH COULD AID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH
 DATA COLLECTED BY A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY SUGGEST THE
 EDDY MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT USING SATELLITE
 MEASUREMENTS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
 NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT.  ON
 THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE WEST
 SEMICIRCLE THAT COULD STILL PENETRATE THE CORE...AND THE SHEAR IS
 EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR LANDFALL.  THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT I
 EXPECT SOME NET WEAKENING OF IVAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT STILL
 EXPECT IT TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11...AND IVAN LOOKS TO BE MAKING
 THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN.  IVAN REMAINS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
 TRACK AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
 ALTHOUGH THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A BIT FASTER TO THE COASTLINE. 
 MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UNTIL WELL AFTER
 LANDFALL...WHERE THERE ARE A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE
 REMNANTS OF IVAN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
 POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
 APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/1500Z 27.3N  88.0W   115 KT
  12HR VT     16/0000Z 28.9N  88.2W   115 KT
  24HR VT     16/1200Z 31.0N  87.9W    90 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     17/0000Z 32.8N  87.4W    55 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     17/1200Z 34.0N  86.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     18/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W    20 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     19/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     20/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
  
  
 $$