504 
 WTPA42 PHFO 270847
 TCDCP2
  
 Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number  52
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 26 2018
  
 Lane's low-level circulation center has been exposed for the better 
 part of the past 24 hours, barring a period this afternoon when 
 bursting convection briefly moved over the center. These 
 thunderstorms were quickly sheared away to the east as Lane remains 
 embedded in an environment characterized by 40-50 kt of vertical
 wind shear. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 1.5/25 kt
 from HFO/SAB/GTW, but Lane's appearance hasn't changed much since a 
 morning ASCAT pass indicated 30 kt in the northern semicircle. As 
 such, the initial intensity will remain 30 kt for this advisory.
 
 The initial motion for this advisory is 270/8 kt, with Lane being 
 driven westward by a surface high to the distant NE. This motion 
 will continue in the short-term, with the strong shear likely 
 causing Lane to devolve into a post-tropical remnant low on Monday.
 A brief slowing in forward speed is expected late Monday and
 Tuesday as the remnant low reaches the southwestern edge of the high
 and begins to interact with a mid-level low to its west. Although 
 confidence is reduced, this interaction is expected to lead to the 
 development of an extratropical low later Tuesday into Wednesday.
 This low could bring gale force winds to portions of the
 Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it tracks northwest.
 The updated track and intensity forecast is close to the previous
 forecast, and represents a blend of regional and global model
 guidance. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  27/0900Z 18.9N 164.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  27/1800Z 18.9N 165.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  28/0600Z 19.2N 166.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  28/1800Z 20.2N 167.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  29/0600Z 22.0N 168.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  30/0600Z 26.8N 171.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  31/0600Z 31.0N 175.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  01/0600Z 35.5N 178.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 Forecaster Birchard