000 
 WTNT43 KNHC 020831
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 02 2004
  
 IN SOMEWHAT OF A SURPRISE...CONVECTION HAS COOLED AGAIN NEAR THE EYE
 OF LISA AND THE SYSTEM IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 6 HR AGO. 
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM
 SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  LISA IS AGAIN UPGRADED TO A 65 KT
 HURRICANE DESPITE BEING OVER 23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
 
 THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...AS LISA IS
 STARTING TO INTERACT WITH FRONTAL ZONE CLOUDINESS AND THE SEA
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FALL BELOW 20C IN
 LESS THAN 24 HR.  THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASING SHEAR...SHOULD
 WEAKEN THE STORM AND CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT
 36 HR.  AFTER THAT...LISA SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
 EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/21.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
 FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.  LISA SHOULD ACCELERATE EAST-
 NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS
 ABSORBED.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
 AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0900Z 40.8N  40.5W    65 KT
  12HR VT     02/1800Z 43.0N  36.1W    60 KT
  24HR VT     03/0600Z 44.9N  28.1W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     03/1800Z 46.1N  18.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
  
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