655 
 WTNT24 KNHC 150231
 TCMAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  51
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
 0300Z WED SEP 15 2004
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
 APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
 LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
 THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
 SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
 WEST OF GRAND ISLE.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
 LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
 YANKEETOWN FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
 STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
 NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
 FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...
 HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N  87.2W AT 15/0300Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  10 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  932 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  45 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
 64 KT....... 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 50 KT.......175NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
 34 KT.......225NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.
 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N  87.2W AT 15/0300Z
 AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  87.0W
  
 FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.6N  87.8W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
 64 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 50 KT...175NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
 34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.6N  88.2W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
 64 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 50 KT...175NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
 34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.6N  88.2W...INLAND
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 64 KT... 75NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 50 KT...150NE 125SE  75SW  90NW.
 34 KT...200NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.6N  87.6W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
 34 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.0N  85.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 35.5N  85.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 35.5N  85.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N  87.2W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 $$