261 
 WTNT43 KNHC 012016
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004
  
 AFTER NEALY TWO WEEKS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...LISA
 REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE 8TH HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON.
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND
 THE EYE FEATURE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CONSEQUENTLY...
 SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE
 T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION...
 LATEST AVAILABLE SSMI SHOW A RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE
 AND AMSU ESTIMATES ARE 64 KNOTS AND 987 MB PRESSURE. BASED ON THIS
 INFORMATION...LISA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE. HOWEVER...LISA
 IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
 SOON.
  
 LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 19 KNOTS
 EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THEREFORE
 ...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN
 INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
 ABOUT 36 HOURS. LISA IS EXPECTED TO TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
 EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/2100Z 38.4N  45.1W    65 KT
  12HR VT     02/0600Z 40.5N  42.5W    55 KT
  24HR VT     02/1800Z 43.5N  37.0W    45 KT
  36HR VT     03/0600Z 45.5N  29.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     03/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$