103 
 WTNT44 KNHC 142048
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004
  
 THIS MORNING'S WEAKENING TREND HAS CEASED AND THE OUTER EYEWALL OF
 IVAN IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT REPORTED
 A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 929 MB ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 115-120 KT
 FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 120 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
 CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  IVAN IS
 STILL EXPECTED TO PASS OVER A WARM GULF EDDY IN ABOUT 12 TO 24
 HOURS...WHICH COULD HELP IVAN TO REGAIN A LITTLE STRENGTH BEFORE
 ENCOUNTERING SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR JUST
 BEFORE LANDFALL.  ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE LANDFALL INTENSITY CANNOT BE
 CONFIDENTLY FORECAST...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT
 LANDFALL.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/8...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
 MOTION...AND THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS ALMOST NORTHWARD. IVAN IS
 MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST...WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GROUPING
 OF THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS. THE ECMWF REMAINS AN
 OUTLIER WITH A TRACK ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS.
  
 THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL FORECASTS AFTER
 LANDFALL...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL MOVE
 VERY SLOWLY OR STALL NEAR OR OVER THE APPALACHIANS IN 4 OR 5
 DAYS...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A VERY SERIOUS FLOODING EVENT.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/2100Z 24.2N  86.6W   120 KT
  12HR VT     15/0600Z 25.3N  87.2W   120 KT
  24HR VT     15/1800Z 27.2N  88.0W   125 KT
  36HR VT     16/0600Z 29.3N  88.3W   120 KT
  48HR VT     16/1800Z 31.5N  88.0W    75 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     17/1800Z 34.5N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     18/1800Z 35.5N  84.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     19/1800Z 35.5N  84.5W    20 KT...INLAND
  
  
 $$