200 
 WTNT43 KNHC 010831
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004
  
 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LISA HAS A CONVECTIVE BAND
 WRAPPED ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER...
 SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THE
 WARM SPOT OR EYE FEATURE SEEN EARLIER IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT
 WITH TIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT...WHICH IS ABOVE
 THE 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/10...AND OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO
 LISA MAY BE MOVING EVEN MORE TO THE RIGHT.  THE STORM IS RECURVING
 INTO THE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF JEANNE...AND AN TURN
 TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
 12-24 HR.  THEREAFTER...LISA SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT
 IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
 ATLANTIC.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE
 RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
 CLUSTERED GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
 LISA IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN.  THE STORM IS NOW OVER
 25C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE WATER GETS COLDER ALONG THE
 FORECAST TRACK.  ADDITIONALLY...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
 AFTER 12 HR...AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING A FRONTAL ZONE
 AFTER 24 HR.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...WITH LISA
 UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36-48 HR AND ABSORPTION BY
 THE LARGER LOW BEFORE 72 HR.  THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
 LISA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS MORNING.  IF THIS
 OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT CHANGE THE EXPECTED OVERALL
 WEAKENING TREND.
 
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0900Z 35.6N  47.4W    60 KT
  12HR VT     01/1800Z 37.6N  46.0W    55 KT
  24HR VT     02/0600Z 40.5N  42.5W    50 KT
  36HR VT     02/1800Z 43.4N  37.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     03/0600Z 46.0N  28.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
  
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