326 
 WTPA42 PHFO 260245
 TCDCP2
  
 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  47
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 500 PM HST Sat Aug 25 2018
  
 The low level circulation center of Lane is exposed in visible
 satellite imagery with bursts of deep convection continuing to pulse
 east of the low level center. Based on the latest Dvorak fixes and
 the latest satellite representation of Lane, we have maintained the
 initial intensity at 45 knots with this advisory. Wind radii were
 decreased slightly based on a recent ASCAT pass which captured the
 eastern side of the circulation.
  
 Strong westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt continues to impact lane.
 Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days due to
 this strong shear persisting. This follows closely with ICON and
 SHIPS guidance. Lane is forecast to weaken to a depression in about
 36 hours and to a remnant low by 72 hours. Assuming this low
 survives, it may eventually become an extratropical gale low in the
 vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands around days 4 and 5.
  
 The latest motion for this advisory is 270/8 knots. A slight
 increase in forward is expected over the next couple of days as the
 low level center remains embedded in the trades south of an area of
 high pressure north of Hawaii. By day 3, a turn to the  northwest is
 expected the the system rounds the southwest side of the high. The
 current track forecast has been nudged to the left through 48 hours,
 with little change from days 3 through 5. This forecast closely
 follows the HWRF, and lies close to the consensus models. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/0300Z 19.5N 160.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  26/1200Z 19.4N 161.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  27/0000Z 19.2N 163.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  27/1200Z 19.1N 164.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  28/0000Z 19.6N 166.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  29/0000Z 22.5N 168.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  30/0000Z 26.6N 170.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  31/0000Z 31.4N 175.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 Forecaster Burke