421 
 WTPA44 PHFO 070900
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
 1100 PM HST SUN SEP 06 2015
  
 JIMENA GENERATED A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE
 APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ DURING THE EARLY
 EVENING...BUT CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED ONCE AGAIN SINCE THEN...WITH
 DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
 INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. 0600Z SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.5/35 KT FROM PHFO/SAB...AND
 2.0/30KT FROM JTWC...WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS HOVERING NEAR
 2.5/35KT. HOWEVER...THE EVENING ASCAT PASS DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
 AREA OF 45 KT WIND RETRIEVALS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF JIMENA...
 AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.
 
 THE APPARENT LLCC OF JIMENA HAS BECOME OBSCURED UNDERNEATH LAYERED
 CLOUDINESS AS SHOWN IN INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATIONS DURING THE
 EVENING...BUT A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE AIDED A SOMEWHAT
 UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/08 KT. THERE IS NO
 SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING. JIMENA HAS BEEN
 MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST...TOWARD A WEAKNESS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER
 LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FAR NORTHEAST OF HAWAII AND A DEEP
 TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 170W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO
 THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DISPLACING THE LOW
 WESTWARD. THIS WILL FORCE JIMENA TO TURN ONTO A WESTERLY TRACK
 DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A WESTWARD MOTION IS THEN EXPECTED
 TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST THEREAFTER AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
 DEEPENS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
 TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN STAYS CLOSE TO THE TVCN
 MODEL CONSENSUS AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...WHEN THE GUIDANCE SUITE
 DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY. AS WITH PREVIOUS CYCLES...THE ECMWF
 CONTINUES TO BE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER.
  
 THE LATEST UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES SHOW RATHER STRONG
 WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR 23 KT CONTINUING OVER
 JIMENA. A TEMPORARY AND SLIGHT LESSENING OF THE WIND SHEAR IS
 POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...BUT JIMENA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
 WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE STRUGGLES WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
 CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 26C. THE NEW
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
 REMAINING CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND ICON CONSENSUS...BUT NOT WEAKENING
 JIMENA AS RAPIDLY AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE HWRF AND GFDL CONTINUE
 TO INDICATE SOME REINTENSIFICATION AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND...BUT THIS
 SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS SHOW STRONG
 WESTERLY WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. WE CONTINUE TO
 WEAKEN JIMENA TO A DEPRESSION BY 48 HOURS...AND MAKE THE SYSTEM A
 REMNANT LOW AT DAYS 4 AND 5. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/0900Z 26.1N 149.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  07/1800Z 26.6N 150.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  08/0600Z 26.9N 152.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  08/1800Z 27.0N 153.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  09/0600Z 27.0N 155.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  10/0600Z 27.2N 158.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  11/0600Z 27.5N 161.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  12/0600Z 29.0N 163.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER JACOBSON