617 
 WTPA42 PHFO 252045
 TCDCP2
  
 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  46
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018
  
 Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the circulation
 center of Lane. Lightning has also been persistent near the core of
 this deep convection. Visible satellite imagery shows the low level
 circulation center is partially exposed on the southwest side of
 the deepest convection. Based on the latest Dvorak fixes and the
 latest satellite representation of Lane, we have lowered the
 initial intensity to 45 knots. Wind radii were decreased based on
 an overnight ASCAT pass.
 
 Strong westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt continues to impact lane.
 Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days due to
 this strong shear persisting. This follows closely with ICON and
 SHIPS guidance. Lane is forecast to weaken to a depression in about
 36 hours and to a remnant low in about 72 hours. Assuming this low
 survives, it may eventually become an extratropical gale low in the
 vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands around days 4 and 5.
 
 The latest motion for this advisory is 280/6 knots. Early morning
 visible imagery combined with an AMSR pass at 1205Z confirmed that
 Lane has made the long awaited turn toward the west. The current
 track forecast has been shifted to the left through 48 hours, with
 little change from days 3 through 5. This forecast closely follows
 the HWRF, and lies close to the consensus models. There are only
 subtle changes in the track forecast compared with the previous
 forecast from days 2 through 5.
 
 Based on the confirmation on the turn to the west as well as the
 latest forecast track, all watches and warnings for the main
 Hawaiian Islands have been discontinued.
  
 KEY MESSAGES:
  
 1.  Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the
 center. Lingering moisture associated with Lane will continue to
 bring persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the state. 
 Locally gusty winds will continue to be accelerated over higher
 terrain, through gaps, and where winds blow downslope. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
   
 INIT  25/2100Z 19.7N 159.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  26/0600Z 19.7N 160.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  26/1800Z 19.5N 161.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  27/0600Z 19.4N 163.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  27/1800Z 19.7N 165.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  28/1800Z 21.6N 167.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  29/1800Z 25.5N 169.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  30/1800Z 30.4N 174.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 Forecaster Burke