634 
 WTPA41 PHFO 010251
 TCDCP1
 
 HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 500 PM HST MON AUG 31 2015
  
 EYEWALL CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
 BUT A CLOUD-FILLED EYE IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE
 UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN ASYMMETRIC AND BEEN RESTRICTED TO
 THE WEST ALL DAY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 2213 UTC AMSU PASS
 SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN BANDS THAT
 WERE PRESENT SEVERAL HOURS AGO. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN
 AT 5.5/102 KT FROM SAB AND JTWC...AND 115 KT FROM PHFO. THE UW/CIMSS
 ADT ESTIMATE AT 0000 UTC CAME IN AT 115 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF
 THESE DATA AND THE DEGRADATION IN KILO/S SATELLITE 
 PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE HAS
 BEEN LOWERED TO 110 KT. A 2129 UTC ASCAT PASS HELPED REFINE THE WIND
 RADII...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WHERE RADII WERE LARGER
 THAN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED.
 
 KILO HAS REMAINED ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK ALL DAY WITH AN INITIAL
 MOTION OF 340/7 KT AS IT MOVES AROUND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
 EAST. AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD
 TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KILO AND WILL TURN THE CYCLONE SLOWLY
 TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN
 TIGHTLY GROUPED THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TIME
 FRAME. THE DIVERGENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST TRACKS IS DUE TO
 DIFFERING DEPICTIONS BY THE VARIOUS MODELS OF THE STRENGTH AND
 ORIENTATION OF THE FORECAST RIDGE DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST
 HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
 CONSENSUS...GFEX...WHICH PUTS KILO ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD PATH
 FOLLOWING ITS THE LEFT TURN AFTER 36 HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE KILO
 ACROSS THE DATELINE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC THIS EVENING.
 
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE RESULTED IN SOME WEAKENING OF
 KILO TODAY. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD EASE OVER
 THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER SOME NEAR
 TERM WEAKENING...KILO SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN BENEATH SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 29C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
 THUS...THE CURRENT FORECAST DROPS KILO TO 105 KT AT 12 HOURS BUT
 GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND SHIPS.
 
 THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
 CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC
 TOKYO JAPAN. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED
 BY THE U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN GUAM...AND DEPARTMENT OF
 DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IN
 HONOLULU HAWAII.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/0300Z 22.6N 179.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  01/1200Z 23.4N 179.7E  105 KT 120 MPH
  24H  02/0000Z 24.3N 179.2E  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  02/1200Z 24.8N 178.5E  110 KT 125 MPH
  48H  03/0000Z 25.0N 178.0E  115 KT 135 MPH
  72H  04/0000Z 24.5N 176.7E  115 KT 135 MPH
  96H  05/0000Z 24.0N 174.5E  120 KT 140 MPH
 120H  06/0000Z 23.5N 171.5E  125 KT 145 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA