025 
 WTPA44 PHFO 062047
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
 1100 AM HST SUN SEP 06 2015
  
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JIMENA HAS BEEN DEGRADING. WESTERLY 
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 23 KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS 
 HAS LED TO THE EXPOSURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH DEEP
 CONVECTION RECENTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE WESTERLY
 UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO PUSHING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER JIMENA AND IS
 DISRUPTING OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK 
 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.5/35 KT FROM HFO AND SAB
 TO 3.0/45 KT FROM JTWC...WHILE CIMSS ADT CAME IN AT JUST BELOW 35
 KT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ESTIMATED BY LAST EVENING/S
 ASCAT PASS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO WEAKEN JIMENA SLOWLY...AND THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE 45 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT NORTHWEST...OR 325 DEGREES...AT 8 KT. 
 THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD A 
 WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTH AND 
 NORTHWEST CREATED BY A DEEP TROUGH WEST OF HAWAII ALONG 170W. A 
 GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER
 LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF JIMENA BUILDS
 OVER HAWAII AND DISPLACES THE DEEP TROUGH NORTHWESTWARD. IN
 RESPONSE...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY FAR NORTH OF JIMENA
 WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL
 WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RUNS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF A
 RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND
 THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON DAY TWO AND BEYOND...WHEN THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS NEAR TVCN AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
 TO BE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER.
 
 CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS 
 RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISRUPTION TO THE 
 OUTFLOW ARE FORECAST TO EASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT 
 WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WEAKENING AS 
 JIMENA PASSES OVER WATER TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 26C. THE 
 INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS ICON THROUGH DAY THREE AND IS MORE 
 CONSERVATIVE THAN LGEM AND SHIPS...WHICH DISSIPATES JIMENA ON DAY 
 THREE.
 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  06/2100Z 24.8N 148.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  07/0600Z 25.7N 149.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  07/1800Z 26.3N 150.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  08/0600Z 26.4N 151.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  08/1800Z 26.3N 153.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  09/1800Z 26.1N 156.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  10/1800Z 26.0N 159.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  11/1800Z 26.1N 162.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE